{ "candidate_count": 29, "generated_at": "2026-09-22T03:00:03Z", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "prints": [ { "calculation": { "final_math": { "configured_rule": "weighted_mean", "formula": "sum(median * weight) / sum(weight)", "published_value": "0.010", "raw_value": "0.01017643356245170526708583587", "rule": "weighted_mean", "weight_sum": "1.000000000000000000000000000", "weighted_sum": "0.01017643356245170526708583587" }, "published_value": "0.010", "rounding": "round half up to 0.001, then clamp to [0.001, 0.999]", "rule": "weighted_mean", "venues_contributing": 5, "weighted_terms": [ { "median": "0.004480519480519480519480519481", "median_x_weight": "0.00009446529765900541739298633756", "venue_id": "betfair", "weight": "0.02108355918766207866452158838" }, { "median": "0.0150", "median_x_weight": "0.0009253856332736222755411661379", "venue_id": "gemini", "weight": "0.06169237555157481836941107586" }, { "median": "0.00714566", "median_x_weight": "0.0025009810", "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.35" }, { "median": "0.0035", "median_x_weight": "0.001225", "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.35" }, { "median": "0.025", "median_x_weight": "0.005430601631519077574151683395", "venue_id": "predictit", "weight": "0.2172240652607631029660673358" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, "candidate_id": "brian_kemp", "candidate_name": "Brian Kemp", "canonical_document": "prints/gop_nomination_2028__brian_kemp/20260922T030000Z.json", "canonical_question_hash": "sha256:6d2fafdd8dfd5419035977c0806ba4353f3f36185d7d354670e18384b7949e86", "core_offered_venue_count": 3, "detail_path": "details/gop_nomination_2028__brian_kemp.json", "liquidity_window": { "end": "2026-09-22T01:00:00Z", "lag_hours": 1, "start": "2026-08-23T01:00:00Z", "statistic": "median", "target_hours": 720 }, "market_id": "gop_nomination_2028:brian_kemp", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "offered_venue_count": 6, "print": { "dispersion": "0.022", "flags": [], "value": "0.010", "venues_contributing": 5, "weight_contributing": "1.0000" }, "type": "print", "venues": [ { "avg_spread_q": "0.0053", "depth_history_hours": 369, "depth_history_samples": 22020, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "74.3800", "median": "0.004480519480519480519480519481", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "betfair", "weight": "0.0211" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0100", "depth_history_hours": 491, "depth_history_samples": 28955, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "233.5900", "median": "0.0150", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "gemini", "weight": "0.0617" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0043", "depth_history_hours": 566, "depth_history_samples": 31345, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "9300.5774", "median": "0.00714566", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 33365, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "7164.9309", "median": "0.0035", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0100", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 32822, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "1094.2100", "median": "0.025", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "predictit", "weight": "0.2172" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, { "calculation": { "final_math": { "configured_rule": "weighted_mean", "formula": "sum(median * weight) / sum(weight)", "published_value": "0.007", "raw_value": "0.006599999999999999999999999999", "rule": "weighted_mean", "weight_sum": "0.9999999999999999999999999999", "weighted_sum": "0.006599999999999999999999999998" }, "published_value": "0.007", "rounding": "round half up to 0.001, then clamp to [0.001, 0.999]", "rule": "weighted_mean", "venues_contributing": 3, "weighted_terms": [ { "median": "0.0150", "median_x_weight": "0.004499999999999999999999999998", "venue_id": "gemini", "weight": "0.2999999999999999999999999999" }, { "median": "0.0045", "median_x_weight": "0.001575000000000000000000000000", "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3500000000000000000000000000" }, { "median": "0.0015", "median_x_weight": "0.0005250000000000000000000000000", "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.3500000000000000000000000000" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, "candidate_id": "byron_donalds", "candidate_name": "Byron Donalds", "canonical_document": "prints/gop_nomination_2028__byron_donalds/20260922T030000Z.json", "canonical_question_hash": "sha256:e3949b4a7a37a9a244fc87ee1d623c9ec8782d2e90d3ea45701da0a0c1dde978", "core_offered_venue_count": 3, "detail_path": "details/gop_nomination_2028__byron_donalds.json", "liquidity_window": { "end": "2026-09-22T01:00:00Z", "lag_hours": 1, "start": "2026-08-23T01:00:00Z", "statistic": "median", "target_hours": 720 }, "market_id": "gop_nomination_2028:byron_donalds", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "offered_venue_count": 4, "print": { "dispersion": "0.014", "flags": [], "value": "0.007", "venues_contributing": 3, "weight_contributing": "1.0000" }, "type": "print", "venues": [ { "avg_spread_q": "0.0100", "depth_history_hours": 491, "depth_history_samples": 28931, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "233.5900", "median": "0.0150", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "gemini", "weight": "0.3000" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 566, "depth_history_samples": 31125, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "18398.0327", "median": "0.0045", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 33376, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "16749.7582", "median": "0.0015", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.3500" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, { "calculation": { "final_math": { "configured_rule": "weighted_mean", "formula": "sum(median * weight) / sum(weight)", "published_value": "0.027", "raw_value": "0.02659543922944185776388295386", "rule": "weighted_mean", "weight_sum": "0.9999999999999999999999999999", "weighted_sum": "0.02659543922944185776388295386" }, "published_value": "0.027", "rounding": "round half up to 0.001, then clamp to [0.001, 0.999]", "rule": "weighted_mean", "venues_contributing": 4, "weighted_terms": [ { "median": "0.0250", "median_x_weight": "0.001294256284263570393528410236", "venue_id": "gemini", "weight": "0.05177025137054281574113640945" }, { "median": "0.02341998", "median_x_weight": "0.008196993000000000000000000000", "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3500000000000000000000000000" }, { "median": "0.0205", "median_x_weight": "0.007175000000000000000000000000", "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.3500000000000000000000000000" }, { "median": "0.04", "median_x_weight": "0.009929189945178287370354543620", "venue_id": "predictit", "weight": "0.2482297486294571842588635905" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, "candidate_id": "donald_trump", "candidate_name": "Donald Trump", "canonical_document": "prints/gop_nomination_2028__donald_trump/20260922T030000Z.json", "canonical_question_hash": "sha256:d3859734b1dc2030a17c76ac15a6eb8629ab6fd256837ac49883ad3598156bc0", "core_offered_venue_count": 3, "detail_path": "details/gop_nomination_2028__donald_trump.json", "liquidity_window": { "end": "2026-09-22T01:00:00Z", "lag_hours": 1, "start": "2026-08-23T01:00:00Z", "statistic": "median", "target_hours": 720 }, "market_id": "gop_nomination_2028:donald_trump", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "offered_venue_count": 5, "print": { "dispersion": "0.020", "flags": [], "value": "0.027", "venues_contributing": 4, "weight_contributing": "1.0000" }, "type": "print", "venues": [ { "avg_spread_q": "0.0100", "depth_history_hours": 491, "depth_history_samples": 28885, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "146.0100", "median": "0.0250", "valid_samples": 59, "venue_id": "gemini", "weight": "0.0518" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0064", "depth_history_hours": 566, "depth_history_samples": 31332, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "15101.4881", "median": "0.02341998", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 33383, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "8807.9977", "median": "0.0205", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0200", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 32822, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "922.2000", "median": "0.04", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "predictit", "weight": "0.2482" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, { "calculation": { "final_math": { "configured_rule": "weighted_mean", "formula": "sum(median * weight) / sum(weight)", "published_value": "0.028", "raw_value": "0.02822457284427108530161168882", "rule": "weighted_mean", "weight_sum": "1.000000000000000000000000000", "weighted_sum": "0.02822457284427108530161168882" }, "published_value": "0.028", "rounding": "round half up to 0.001, then clamp to [0.001, 0.999]", "rule": "weighted_mean", "venues_contributing": 5, "weighted_terms": [ { "median": "0.02860501567398119122257053292", "median_x_weight": "0.002672001379944147030346550023", "venue_id": "betfair", "weight": "0.09341024002215703043074514599" }, { "median": "0.0350", "median_x_weight": "0.001434110543507463580535387584", "venue_id": "gemini", "weight": "0.04097458695735610230101107382" }, { "median": "0.03448244", "median_x_weight": "0.0120688540", "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.35" }, { "median": "0.0155", "median_x_weight": "0.005425", "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.35" }, { "median": "0.04", "median_x_weight": "0.006624606920819474690729751208", "venue_id": "predictit", "weight": "0.1656151730204868672682437802" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, "candidate_id": "donald_trump_jr", "candidate_name": "Donald Trump Jr.", "canonical_document": "prints/gop_nomination_2028__donald_trump_jr/20260922T030000Z.json", "canonical_question_hash": "sha256:f9bbe3458a673f0624170266e2f0e745e48f897056dc65bafbb6ed9131851eed", "core_offered_venue_count": 3, "detail_path": "details/gop_nomination_2028__donald_trump_jr.json", "liquidity_window": { "end": "2026-09-22T01:00:00Z", "lag_hours": 1, "start": "2026-08-23T01:00:00Z", "statistic": "median", "target_hours": 720 }, "market_id": "gop_nomination_2028:donald_trump_jr", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "offered_venue_count": 6, "print": { "dispersion": "0.024", "flags": [], "value": "0.028", "venues_contributing": 5, "weight_contributing": "1.0000" }, "type": "print", "venues": [ { "avg_spread_q": "0.0118", "depth_history_hours": 542, "depth_history_samples": 31159, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "209.5400", "median": "0.02860501567398119122257053292", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "betfair", "weight": "0.0934" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0100", "depth_history_hours": 491, "depth_history_samples": 28944, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "87.0300", "median": "0.0350", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "gemini", "weight": "0.0410" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0030", "depth_history_hours": 566, "depth_history_samples": 31368, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "10752.0839", "median": "0.03448244", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 33371, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "16835.0506", "median": "0.0155", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0200", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 32822, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "401.1500", "median": "0.04", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "predictit", "weight": "0.1656" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, { "calculation": { "final_math": { "configured_rule": "weighted_mean", "formula": "sum(median * weight) / sum(weight)", "published_value": "0.002", "raw_value": "0.0015", "rule": "weighted_mean", "weight_sum": "1.000000000000000000000000000", "weighted_sum": "0.001500000000000000000000000000" }, "published_value": "0.002", "rounding": "round half up to 0.001, then clamp to [0.001, 0.999]", "rule": "weighted_mean", "venues_contributing": 2, "weighted_terms": [ { "median": "0.0015", "median_x_weight": "0.0005905941204729606251910482816", "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3937294136486404167940321877" }, { "median": "0.0015", "median_x_weight": "0.0009094058795270393748089517184", "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.6062705863513595832059678123" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, "candidate_id": "elise_stefanik", "candidate_name": "Elise Stefanik", "canonical_document": "prints/gop_nomination_2028__elise_stefanik/20260922T030000Z.json", "canonical_question_hash": "sha256:be147c9647b2e8c1e816ee6e71f7897b98f806892c716164023d4289d683ff8e", "core_offered_venue_count": 2, "detail_path": "details/gop_nomination_2028__elise_stefanik.json", "liquidity_window": { "end": "2026-09-22T01:00:00Z", "lag_hours": 1, "start": "2026-08-23T01:00:00Z", "statistic": "median", "target_hours": 720 }, "market_id": "gop_nomination_2028:elise_stefanik", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "offered_venue_count": 3, "print": { "dispersion": "0.000", "flags": [ "TWO_VENUE" ], "value": "0.002", "venues_contributing": 2, "weight_contributing": "1.0000" }, "type": "print", "venues": [ { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 565, "depth_history_samples": 31067, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "5934.2403", "median": "0.0015", "valid_samples": 59, "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3937" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 33374, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "18723.4541", "median": "0.0015", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.6063" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, { "calculation": { "final_math": { "configured_rule": "weighted_mean", "formula": "sum(median * weight) / sum(weight)", "published_value": "0.001", "raw_value": "0.00132060208841367038385418176", "rule": "weighted_mean", "weight_sum": "1.000000000000000000000000000", "weighted_sum": "0.001320602088413670383854181760" }, "published_value": "0.001", "rounding": "round half up to 0.001, then clamp to [0.001, 0.999]", "rule": "weighted_mean", "venues_contributing": 2, "weighted_terms": [ { "median": "0.001", "median_x_weight": "0.0003587958231726592322916364795", "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3587958231726592322916364795" }, { "median": "0.0015", "median_x_weight": "0.0009618062652410111515625452808", "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.6412041768273407677083635205" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, "candidate_id": "elon_musk", "candidate_name": "Elon Musk", "canonical_document": "prints/gop_nomination_2028__elon_musk/20260922T030000Z.json", "canonical_question_hash": "sha256:f8101ed1be91e818b914976fd7a36c6c8216feca83bba460e8d006374705c3b8", "core_offered_venue_count": 2, "detail_path": "details/gop_nomination_2028__elon_musk.json", "liquidity_window": { "end": "2026-09-22T01:00:00Z", "lag_hours": 1, "start": "2026-08-23T01:00:00Z", "statistic": "median", "target_hours": 720 }, "market_id": "gop_nomination_2028:elon_musk", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "offered_venue_count": 3, "print": { "dispersion": "0.000", "flags": [ "TWO_VENUE" ], "value": "0.001", "venues_contributing": 2, "weight_contributing": "1.0000" }, "type": "print", "venues": [ { "avg_spread_q": "0.0000", "depth_history_hours": 566, "depth_history_samples": 31220, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "2571.8252", "median": "0.001", "valid_samples": 59, "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3588" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 552, "depth_history_samples": 32308, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "8729.0472", "median": "0.0015", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.6412" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, { "calculation": { "final_math": { "configured_rule": "weighted_mean", "formula": "sum(median * weight) / sum(weight)", "published_value": "0.004", "raw_value": "0.003842857142857142857142857144", "rule": "weighted_mean", "weight_sum": "1.00", "weighted_sum": "0.003842857142857142857142857144" }, "published_value": "0.004", "rounding": "round half up to 0.001, then clamp to [0.001, 0.999]", "rule": "weighted_mean", "venues_contributing": 3, "weighted_terms": [ { "median": "0.008142857142857142857142857145", "median_x_weight": "0.002442857142857142857142857144", "venue_id": "betfair", "weight": "0.3" }, { "median": "0.0025", "median_x_weight": "0.000875", "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.35" }, { "median": "0.0015", "median_x_weight": "0.000525", "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.35" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, "candidate_id": "eric_trump", "candidate_name": "Eric Trump", "canonical_document": "prints/gop_nomination_2028__eric_trump/20260922T030000Z.json", "canonical_question_hash": "sha256:0a361c816d20953a524f6db37488cdf123b8e25ed08510cfc91484c799347050", "core_offered_venue_count": 2, "detail_path": "details/gop_nomination_2028__eric_trump.json", "liquidity_window": { "end": "2026-09-22T01:00:00Z", "lag_hours": 1, "start": "2026-08-23T01:00:00Z", "statistic": "median", "target_hours": 720 }, "market_id": "gop_nomination_2028:eric_trump", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "offered_venue_count": 4, "print": { "dispersion": "0.007", "flags": [], "value": "0.004", "venues_contributing": 3, "weight_contributing": "1.0000" }, "type": "print", "venues": [ { "avg_spread_q": "0.0123", "depth_history_hours": 542, "depth_history_samples": 31159, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "119.8600", "median": "0.008142857142857142857142857145", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "betfair", "weight": "0.3000" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 565, "depth_history_samples": 30817, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "4152.2527", "median": "0.0025", "valid_samples": 59, "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 33370, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "15928.4028", "median": "0.0015", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.3500" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, { "calculation": { "final_math": { "configured_rule": "weighted_mean", "formula": "sum(median * weight) / sum(weight)", "published_value": "0.012", "raw_value": "0.0115990961442763144299738063", "rule": "weighted_mean", "weight_sum": "1.000000000000000000000000000", "weighted_sum": "0.01159909614427631442997380630" }, "published_value": "0.012", "rounding": "round half up to 0.001, then clamp to [0.001, 0.999]", "rule": "weighted_mean", "venues_contributing": 4, "weighted_terms": [ { "median": "0.0150", "median_x_weight": "0.0009388557835855283550392905466", "venue_id": "gemini", "weight": "0.06259038557236855700261936977" }, { "median": "0.0090", "median_x_weight": "0.003150", "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.35" }, { "median": "0.0045", "median_x_weight": "0.001575", "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.35" }, { "median": "0.025", "median_x_weight": "0.005935240360690786074934515755", "venue_id": "predictit", "weight": "0.2374096144276314429973806302" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, "candidate_id": "glenn_youngkin", "candidate_name": "Glenn Youngkin", "canonical_document": "prints/gop_nomination_2028__glenn_youngkin/20260922T030000Z.json", "canonical_question_hash": "sha256:66bc9b46477143eacc8a78309e7352130a244a5edd18569d82e96455518f42e3", "core_offered_venue_count": 3, "detail_path": "details/gop_nomination_2028__glenn_youngkin.json", "liquidity_window": { "end": "2026-09-22T01:00:00Z", "lag_hours": 1, "start": "2026-08-23T01:00:00Z", "statistic": "median", "target_hours": 720 }, "market_id": "gop_nomination_2028:glenn_youngkin", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "offered_venue_count": 6, "print": { "dispersion": "0.020", "flags": [], "value": "0.012", "venues_contributing": 4, "weight_contributing": "0.9856" }, "type": "print", "venues": [ { "avg_spread_q": "0.0100", "depth_history_hours": 491, "depth_history_samples": 28934, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "241.4300", "median": "0.0150", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "gemini", "weight": "0.0626" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0020", "depth_history_hours": 566, "depth_history_samples": 31351, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "15153.9829", "median": "0.0090", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0011", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 33417, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "3428.3373", "median": "0.0045", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0100", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 32823, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "1271.1900", "median": "0.025", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "predictit", "weight": "0.2374" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, { "calculation": { "final_math": { "configured_rule": "weighted_mean", "formula": "sum(median * weight) / sum(weight)", "published_value": "0.007", "raw_value": "0.007279432984170619258087925955", "rule": "weighted_mean", "weight_sum": "1.000000000000000000000000000", "weighted_sum": "0.007279432984170619258087925955" }, "published_value": "0.007", "rounding": "round half up to 0.001, then clamp to [0.001, 0.999]", "rule": "weighted_mean", "venues_contributing": 4, "weighted_terms": [ { "median": "0.01136956521739130434782608696", "median_x_weight": "0.0006124643669387193294611660229", "venue_id": "betfair", "weight": "0.05386875885120667142488267121" }, { "median": "0.0150", "median_x_weight": "0.003691968617231899928626759932", "venue_id": "gemini", "weight": "0.2461312411487933285751173288" }, { "median": "0.0060", "median_x_weight": "0.002100", "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.35" }, { "median": "0.0025", "median_x_weight": "0.000875", "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.35" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, "candidate_id": "greg_abbott", "candidate_name": "Greg Abbott", "canonical_document": "prints/gop_nomination_2028__greg_abbott/20260922T030000Z.json", "canonical_question_hash": "sha256:7bad72ceba9134206ea55d293cd2d3cd48673cdc83415e02973bc0259a8a4f2f", "core_offered_venue_count": 3, "detail_path": "details/gop_nomination_2028__greg_abbott.json", "liquidity_window": { "end": "2026-09-22T01:00:00Z", "lag_hours": 1, "start": "2026-08-23T01:00:00Z", "statistic": "median", "target_hours": 720 }, "market_id": "gop_nomination_2028:greg_abbott", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "offered_venue_count": 5, "print": { "dispersion": "0.012", "flags": [], "value": "0.007", "venues_contributing": 4, "weight_contributing": "1.0000" }, "type": "print", "venues": [ { "avg_spread_q": "0.0207", "depth_history_hours": 369, "depth_history_samples": 22020, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "46.2900", "median": "0.01136956521739130434782608696", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "betfair", "weight": "0.0539" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0100", "depth_history_hours": 491, "depth_history_samples": 28961, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "229.6800", "median": "0.0150", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "gemini", "weight": "0.2461" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0020", "depth_history_hours": 566, "depth_history_samples": 31286, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "11395.5897", "median": "0.0060", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 33388, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "17662.0982", "median": "0.0025", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.3500" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, { "calculation": { "final_math": { "configured_rule": "weighted_mean", "formula": "sum(median * weight) / sum(weight)", "published_value": "0.012", "raw_value": "0.011537500000000000000000000", "rule": "weighted_mean", "weight_sum": "1.00", "weighted_sum": "0.01153750000000000000000000000" }, "published_value": "0.012", "rounding": "round half up to 0.001, then clamp to [0.001, 0.999]", "rule": "weighted_mean", "venues_contributing": 3, "weighted_terms": [ { "median": "0.01104166666666666666666666666", "median_x_weight": "0.003312499999999999999999999998", "venue_id": "betfair", "weight": "0.3" }, { "median": "0.0145", "median_x_weight": "0.005075", "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.35" }, { "median": "0.009", "median_x_weight": "0.00315", "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.35" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, "candidate_id": "ivanka_trump", "candidate_name": "Ivanka Trump", "canonical_document": "prints/gop_nomination_2028__ivanka_trump/20260922T030000Z.json", "canonical_question_hash": "sha256:3b8741e59c6e444c26033704251567d41c5b02f00ec572618a02962ad86a1886", "core_offered_venue_count": 2, "detail_path": "details/gop_nomination_2028__ivanka_trump.json", "liquidity_window": { "end": "2026-09-22T01:00:00Z", "lag_hours": 1, "start": "2026-08-23T01:00:00Z", "statistic": "median", "target_hours": 720 }, "market_id": "gop_nomination_2028:ivanka_trump", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "offered_venue_count": 4, "print": { "dispersion": "0.006", "flags": [], "value": "0.012", "venues_contributing": 3, "weight_contributing": "1.0000" }, "type": "print", "venues": [ { "avg_spread_q": "0.0179", "depth_history_hours": 542, "depth_history_samples": 31159, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "139.7200", "median": "0.01104166666666666666666666666", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "betfair", "weight": "0.3000" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 565, "depth_history_samples": 30951, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "7379.0688", "median": "0.0145", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0020", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 33386, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "10332.9124", "median": "0.009", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.3500" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, { "calculation": { "final_math": { "configured_rule": "weighted_mean", "formula": "sum(median * weight) / sum(weight)", "published_value": "0.479", "raw_value": "0.4793501062383345231941303792", "rule": "weighted_mean", "weight_sum": "1.000000000000000000000000000", "weighted_sum": "0.4793501062383345231941303792" }, "published_value": "0.479", "rounding": "round half up to 0.001, then clamp to [0.001, 0.999]", "rule": "weighted_mean", "venues_contributing": 4, "weighted_terms": [ { "median": "0.4800", "median_x_weight": "0.08321310883219532610914856826", "venue_id": "gemini", "weight": "0.1733606434004069293940595172" }, { "median": "0.4550", "median_x_weight": "0.159250", "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.35" }, { "median": "0.5125", "median_x_weight": "0.179375", "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.35" }, { "median": "0.45414", "median_x_weight": "0.05751199740613919708498181090", "venue_id": "predictit", "weight": "0.1266393565995930706059404829" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, "candidate_id": "jd_vance", "candidate_name": "JD Vance", "canonical_document": "prints/gop_nomination_2028__jd_vance/20260922T030000Z.json", "canonical_question_hash": "sha256:bb190d7d05c322e02e196fcfe28d2b96a8a61d58b3da81721611ebf67736e07a", "core_offered_venue_count": 3, "detail_path": "details/gop_nomination_2028__jd_vance.json", "liquidity_window": { "end": "2026-09-22T01:00:00Z", "lag_hours": 1, "start": "2026-08-23T01:00:00Z", "statistic": "median", "target_hours": 720 }, "market_id": "gop_nomination_2028:jd_vance", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "offered_venue_count": 6, "print": { "dispersion": "0.058", "flags": [], "value": "0.479", "venues_contributing": 4, "weight_contributing": "0.9547" }, "type": "print", "venues": [ { "avg_spread_q": "0.0800", "depth_history_hours": 491, "depth_history_samples": 28929, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "1219.6000", "median": "0.4800", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "gemini", "weight": "0.1734" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0100", "depth_history_hours": 566, "depth_history_samples": 31354, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "85492.8684", "median": "0.4550", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 33421, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "42540.8670", "median": "0.5125", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0223", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 32822, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "790.4100", "median": "0.45414", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "predictit", "weight": "0.1266" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, { "calculation": { "final_math": { "configured_rule": "weighted_mean", "formula": "sum(median * weight) / sum(weight)", "published_value": "0.006", "raw_value": "0.0055571000000000000000000000", "rule": "weighted_mean", "weight_sum": "1.00", "weighted_sum": "0.005557100000000000000000000000" }, "published_value": "0.006", "rounding": "round half up to 0.001, then clamp to [0.001, 0.999]", "rule": "weighted_mean", "venues_contributing": 3, "weighted_terms": [ { "median": "0.008833333333333333333333333335", "median_x_weight": "0.002650000000000000000000000000", "venue_id": "betfair", "weight": "0.3" }, { "median": "0.005306", "median_x_weight": "0.00185710", "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.35" }, { "median": "0.003", "median_x_weight": "0.00105", "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.35" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, "candidate_id": "josh_hawley", "candidate_name": "Josh Hawley", "canonical_document": "prints/gop_nomination_2028__josh_hawley/20260922T030000Z.json", "canonical_question_hash": "sha256:d283bafdaa31f85f582b9e0cfd3902523bcf1bbfa905166315d87e34bf966a9f", "core_offered_venue_count": 2, "detail_path": "details/gop_nomination_2028__josh_hawley.json", "liquidity_window": { "end": "2026-09-22T01:00:00Z", "lag_hours": 1, "start": "2026-08-23T01:00:00Z", "statistic": "median", "target_hours": 720 }, "market_id": "gop_nomination_2028:josh_hawley", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "offered_venue_count": 4, "print": { "dispersion": "0.006", "flags": [], "value": "0.006", "venues_contributing": 3, "weight_contributing": "1.0000" }, "type": "print", "venues": [ { "avg_spread_q": "0.0157", "depth_history_hours": 363, "depth_history_samples": 21656, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "50.1300", "median": "0.008833333333333333333333333335", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "betfair", "weight": "0.3000" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0014", "depth_history_hours": 566, "depth_history_samples": 31197, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "11010.0955", "median": "0.005306", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0020", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 33378, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "11941.1577", "median": "0.003", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.3500" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, { "calculation": { "final_math": { "configured_rule": "weighted_mean", "formula": "sum(median * weight) / sum(weight)", "published_value": "0.002", "raw_value": "0.002438207482327131441153971118", "rule": "weighted_mean", "weight_sum": "1.000000000000000000000000000", "weighted_sum": "0.002438207482327131441153971118" }, "published_value": "0.002", "rounding": "round half up to 0.001, then clamp to [0.001, 0.999]", "rule": "weighted_mean", "venues_contributing": 2, "weighted_terms": [ { "median": "0.0040", "median_x_weight": "0.001501131971723410305846353788", "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3752829929308525764615884469" }, { "median": "0.0015", "median_x_weight": "0.0009370755106037211353076173296", "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.6247170070691474235384115531" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, "candidate_id": "katie_britt", "candidate_name": "Katie Britt", "canonical_document": "prints/gop_nomination_2028__katie_britt/20260922T030000Z.json", "canonical_question_hash": "sha256:0788e9d5a8f9e9dd5d0f513fe4c76cc7dc73fddf5efd97e6df7e35006a5f2b04", "core_offered_venue_count": 2, "detail_path": "details/gop_nomination_2028__katie_britt.json", "liquidity_window": { "end": "2026-09-22T01:00:00Z", "lag_hours": 1, "start": "2026-08-23T01:00:00Z", "statistic": "median", "target_hours": 720 }, "market_id": "gop_nomination_2028:katie_britt", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "offered_venue_count": 3, "print": { "dispersion": "0.002", "flags": [ "TWO_VENUE" ], "value": "0.002", "venues_contributing": 2, "weight_contributing": "1.0000" }, "type": "print", "venues": [ { "avg_spread_q": "0.0020", "depth_history_hours": 566, "depth_history_samples": 31166, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "4390.7091", "median": "0.0040", "valid_samples": 59, "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3753" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 33375, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "15517.2816", "median": "0.0015", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.6247" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, { "calculation": { "final_math": { "configured_rule": "weighted_mean", "formula": "sum(median * weight) / sum(weight)", "published_value": "0.001", "raw_value": "0.001175", "rule": "weighted_mean", "weight_sum": "1.00", "weighted_sum": "0.001175" }, "published_value": "0.001", "rounding": "round half up to 0.001, then clamp to [0.001, 0.999]", "rule": "weighted_mean", "venues_contributing": 3, "weighted_terms": [ { "median": "0.001", "median_x_weight": "0.00035", "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.35" }, { "median": "0.0015", "median_x_weight": "0.000525", "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.35" }, { "median": "0.001", "median_x_weight": "0.0003", "venue_id": "predictit", "weight": "0.3" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, "candidate_id": "kristi_noem", "candidate_name": "Kristi Noem", "canonical_document": "prints/gop_nomination_2028__kristi_noem/20260922T030000Z.json", "canonical_question_hash": "sha256:20e8d65243342d70bb64828f20b46ea0418ce987a56970c89733237680d8870d", "core_offered_venue_count": 2, "detail_path": "details/gop_nomination_2028__kristi_noem.json", "liquidity_window": { "end": "2026-09-22T01:00:00Z", "lag_hours": 1, "start": "2026-08-23T01:00:00Z", "statistic": "median", "target_hours": 720 }, "market_id": "gop_nomination_2028:kristi_noem", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "offered_venue_count": 5, "print": { "dispersion": "0.000", "flags": [], "value": "0.001", "venues_contributing": 3, "weight_contributing": "1.0000" }, "type": "print", "venues": [ { "avg_spread_q": "0.0000", "depth_history_hours": 475, "depth_history_samples": 27825, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "3582.5731", "median": "0.001", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 33416, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "8018.3167", "median": "0.0015", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0000", "depth_history_hours": 413, "depth_history_samples": 22849, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "527.6900", "median": "0.001", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "predictit", "weight": "0.3000" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, { "calculation": { "final_math": { "configured_rule": "weighted_mean", "formula": "sum(median * weight) / sum(weight)", "published_value": "0.187", "raw_value": "0.1868877252669486582273422889", "rule": "weighted_mean", "weight_sum": "0.9999999999999999999999999999", "weighted_sum": "0.1868877252669486582273422889" }, "published_value": "0.187", "rounding": "round half up to 0.001, then clamp to [0.001, 0.999]", "rule": "weighted_mean", "venues_contributing": 5, "weighted_terms": [ { "median": "0.1862068965517241379310344828", "median_x_weight": "0.007502916158052898209214080332", "venue_id": "betfair", "weight": "0.04029343862658037927170524622" }, { "median": "0.2050", "median_x_weight": "0.03109910764211814651026999766", "venue_id": "gemini", "weight": "0.1517029641078933976110731593" }, { "median": "0.2050", "median_x_weight": "0.07175000000000000000000000000", "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3500000000000000000000000000" }, { "median": "0.1585", "median_x_weight": "0.05547500000000000000000000000", "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.3500000000000000000000000000" }, { "median": "0.195", "median_x_weight": "0.02106070146677761350785821091", "venue_id": "predictit", "weight": "0.1080035972655262231172215944" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, "candidate_id": "marco_rubio", "candidate_name": "Marco Rubio", "canonical_document": "prints/gop_nomination_2028__marco_rubio/20260922T030000Z.json", "canonical_question_hash": "sha256:4007d3692289f09c8a9b8bee7f828c467788dbc70b5503f5230a82a497d67e89", "core_offered_venue_count": 3, "detail_path": "details/gop_nomination_2028__marco_rubio.json", "liquidity_window": { "end": "2026-09-22T01:00:00Z", "lag_hours": 1, "start": "2026-08-23T01:00:00Z", "statistic": "median", "target_hours": 720 }, "market_id": "gop_nomination_2028:marco_rubio", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "offered_venue_count": 6, "print": { "dispersion": "0.046", "flags": [], "value": "0.187", "venues_contributing": 5, "weight_contributing": "1.0000" }, "type": "print", "venues": [ { "avg_spread_q": "0.0276", "depth_history_hours": 357, "depth_history_samples": 20250, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "125.3700", "median": "0.1862068965517241379310344828", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "betfair", "weight": "0.0403" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0100", "depth_history_hours": 491, "depth_history_samples": 28936, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "560.0000", "median": "0.2050", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "gemini", "weight": "0.1517" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0100", "depth_history_hours": 566, "depth_history_samples": 31377, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "35019.8917", "median": "0.2050", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0011", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 33421, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "11239.0514", "median": "0.1585", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0100", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 32821, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "372.4400", "median": "0.195", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "predictit", "weight": "0.1080" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, { "calculation": { "final_math": { "configured_rule": "weighted_mean", "formula": "sum(median * weight) / sum(weight)", "published_value": "0.008", "raw_value": "0.007865635939206867053104861548", "rule": "weighted_mean", "weight_sum": "1.000000000000000000000000000", "weighted_sum": "0.007865635939206867053104861548" }, "published_value": "0.008", "rounding": "round half up to 0.001, then clamp to [0.001, 0.999]", "rule": "weighted_mean", "venues_contributing": 5, "weighted_terms": [ { "median": "0.01083333333333333333333333334", "median_x_weight": "0.0003493465580621456619273599770", "venue_id": "betfair", "weight": "0.03224737459035190725483322863" }, { "median": "0.0150", "median_x_weight": "0.001409942210895720375313282578", "venue_id": "gemini", "weight": "0.09399614739304802502088550518" }, { "median": "0.0065", "median_x_weight": "0.002275", "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.35" }, { "median": "0.0035", "median_x_weight": "0.001225", "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.35" }, { "median": "0.015", "median_x_weight": "0.002606347170249001015864218993", "venue_id": "predictit", "weight": "0.1737564780166000677242812662" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, "candidate_id": "marjorie_taylor_greene", "candidate_name": "Marjorie Taylor Greene", "canonical_document": "prints/gop_nomination_2028__marjorie_taylor_greene/20260922T030000Z.json", "canonical_question_hash": "sha256:55acff9e5a8e39bafbf190d2adc8d97671215f957e302ab9491ed0a9c7dfd9a5", "core_offered_venue_count": 3, "detail_path": "details/gop_nomination_2028__marjorie_taylor_greene.json", "liquidity_window": { "end": "2026-09-22T01:00:00Z", "lag_hours": 1, "start": "2026-08-23T01:00:00Z", "statistic": "median", "target_hours": 720 }, "market_id": "gop_nomination_2028:marjorie_taylor_greene", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "offered_venue_count": 6, "print": { "dispersion": "0.012", "flags": [], "value": "0.008", "venues_contributing": 5, "weight_contributing": "1.0000" }, "type": "print", "venues": [ { "avg_spread_q": "0.0117", "depth_history_hours": 542, "depth_history_samples": 31159, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "83.5200", "median": "0.01083333333333333333333333334", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "betfair", "weight": "0.0322" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0100", "depth_history_hours": 491, "depth_history_samples": 28951, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "263.4100", "median": "0.0150", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "gemini", "weight": "0.0940" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 566, "depth_history_samples": 31327, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "19937.5943", "median": "0.0065", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 33380, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "6734.6168", "median": "0.0035", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0100", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 32823, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "540.6700", "median": "0.015", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "predictit", "weight": "0.1738" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, { "calculation": { "final_math": { "configured_rule": "weighted_mean", "formula": "sum(median * weight) / sum(weight)", "published_value": "0.006", "raw_value": "0.006010720711335832644887924394", "rule": "weighted_mean", "weight_sum": "1.000000000000000000000000000", "weighted_sum": "0.006010720711335832644887924394" }, "published_value": "0.006", "rounding": "round half up to 0.001, then clamp to [0.001, 0.999]", "rule": "weighted_mean", "venues_contributing": 4, "weighted_terms": [ { "median": "0.00675", "median_x_weight": "0.0004821375998161369269098800419", "venue_id": "betfair", "weight": "0.07142779256535361880146370991" }, { "median": "0.0150", "median_x_weight": "0.003428583111519695717978044352", "venue_id": "gemini", "weight": "0.2285722074346463811985362901" }, { "median": "0.0045", "median_x_weight": "0.001575", "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.35" }, { "median": "0.0015", "median_x_weight": "0.000525", "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.35" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, "candidate_id": "nikki_haley", "candidate_name": "Nikki Haley", "canonical_document": "prints/gop_nomination_2028__nikki_haley/20260922T030000Z.json", "canonical_question_hash": "sha256:36dbfe211d1ab572ec64c6b66bb1b87dacbc50c76bf1cb2e2c52d13b398748ab", "core_offered_venue_count": 3, "detail_path": "details/gop_nomination_2028__nikki_haley.json", "liquidity_window": { "end": "2026-09-22T01:00:00Z", "lag_hours": 1, "start": "2026-08-23T01:00:00Z", "statistic": "median", "target_hours": 720 }, "market_id": "gop_nomination_2028:nikki_haley", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "offered_venue_count": 5, "print": { "dispersion": "0.014", "flags": [], "value": "0.006", "venues_contributing": 4, "weight_contributing": "1.0000" }, "type": "print", "venues": [ { "avg_spread_q": "0.0115", "depth_history_hours": 542, "depth_history_samples": 31159, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "62.0600", "median": "0.00675", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "betfair", "weight": "0.0714" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0100", "depth_history_hours": 491, "depth_history_samples": 28952, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "212.4900", "median": "0.0150", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "gemini", "weight": "0.2286" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 566, "depth_history_samples": 31370, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "17962.4469", "median": "0.0045", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 33358, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "12292.0654", "median": "0.0015", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.3500" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, { "calculation": { "final_math": { "configured_rule": "weighted_mean", "formula": "sum(median * weight) / sum(weight)", "published_value": "0.006", "raw_value": "0.006000634750630923703850936993", "rule": "weighted_mean", "weight_sum": "1.000000000000000000000000000", "weighted_sum": "0.006000634750630923703850936993" }, "published_value": "0.006", "rounding": "round half up to 0.001, then clamp to [0.001, 0.999]", "rule": "weighted_mean", "venues_contributing": 4, "weighted_terms": [ { "median": "0.03636363636363636363636363637", "median_x_weight": "0.002099794088052363705759318245", "venue_id": "betfair", "weight": "0.05774433742144000190838125174" }, { "median": "0.0055", "median_x_weight": "0.001925", "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.35" }, { "median": "0.0049531", "median_x_weight": "0.001733585", "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.35" }, { "median": "0.001", "median_x_weight": "0.0002422556625785599980916187483", "venue_id": "predictit", "weight": "0.2422556625785599980916187483" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, "candidate_id": "pete_hegseth", "candidate_name": "Pete Hegseth", "canonical_document": "prints/gop_nomination_2028__pete_hegseth/20260922T030000Z.json", "canonical_question_hash": "sha256:a26e66dbe49e342b7d3baf4a56a95b68ae2e9701d7163eb1a83d306effae90da", "core_offered_venue_count": 2, "detail_path": "details/gop_nomination_2028__pete_hegseth.json", "liquidity_window": { "end": "2026-09-22T01:00:00Z", "lag_hours": 1, "start": "2026-08-23T01:00:00Z", "statistic": "median", "target_hours": 720 }, "market_id": "gop_nomination_2028:pete_hegseth", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "offered_venue_count": 5, "print": { "dispersion": "0.035", "flags": [], "value": "0.006", "venues_contributing": 4, "weight_contributing": "1.0000" }, "type": "print", "venues": [ { "avg_spread_q": "0.0701", "depth_history_hours": 479, "depth_history_samples": 27492, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "66.0300", "median": "0.03636363636363636363636363637", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "betfair", "weight": "0.0577" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 566, "depth_history_samples": 31352, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "4474.4184", "median": "0.0055", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0019", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 33411, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "17963.8451", "median": "0.0049531", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0000", "depth_history_hours": 413, "depth_history_samples": 22848, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "307.6800", "median": "0.001", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "predictit", "weight": "0.2423" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, { "calculation": { "final_math": { "configured_rule": "weighted_mean", "formula": "sum(median * weight) / sum(weight)", "published_value": "0.003", "raw_value": "0.002575", "rule": "weighted_mean", "weight_sum": "1.000000000000000000000000000", "weighted_sum": "0.002575000000000000000000000000" }, "published_value": "0.003", "rounding": "round half up to 0.001, then clamp to [0.001, 0.999]", "rule": "weighted_mean", "venues_contributing": 3, "weighted_terms": [ { "median": "0.0045", "median_x_weight": "0.001575", "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.35" }, { "median": "0.002", "median_x_weight": "0.00070", "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.35" }, { "median": "0.001", "median_x_weight": "0.0003000000000000000000000000001", "venue_id": "predictit", "weight": "0.3000000000000000000000000001" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, "candidate_id": "rand_paul", "candidate_name": "Rand Paul", "canonical_document": "prints/gop_nomination_2028__rand_paul/20260922T030000Z.json", "canonical_question_hash": "sha256:649e432a39a406ea113c30bbf30a7f41e743ffaa319cbec7ca35177bfa1ccbff", "core_offered_venue_count": 2, "detail_path": "details/gop_nomination_2028__rand_paul.json", "liquidity_window": { "end": "2026-09-22T01:00:00Z", "lag_hours": 1, "start": "2026-08-23T01:00:00Z", "statistic": "median", "target_hours": 720 }, "market_id": "gop_nomination_2028:rand_paul", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "offered_venue_count": 5, "print": { "dispersion": "0.004", "flags": [], "value": "0.003", "venues_contributing": 3, "weight_contributing": "1.0000" }, "type": "print", "venues": [ { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 566, "depth_history_samples": 31311, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "13741.1102", "median": "0.0045", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0020", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 33389, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "11212.8722", "median": "0.002", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0000", "depth_history_hours": 413, "depth_history_samples": 22848, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "334.3300", "median": "0.001", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "predictit", "weight": "0.3000" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, { "calculation": { "final_math": { "configured_rule": "weighted_mean", "formula": "sum(median * weight) / sum(weight)", "published_value": "0.003", "raw_value": "0.003406381223721863719759489553", "rule": "weighted_mean", "weight_sum": "1.000000000000000000000000000", "weighted_sum": "0.003406381223721863719759489553" }, "published_value": "0.003", "rounding": "round half up to 0.001, then clamp to [0.001, 0.999]", "rule": "weighted_mean", "venues_contributing": 2, "weighted_terms": [ { "median": "0.0045", "median_x_weight": "0.002039357753374193369458851494", "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.4531906118609318598797447764" }, { "median": "0.0025", "median_x_weight": "0.001367023470347670350300638059", "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.5468093881390681401202552236" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, "candidate_id": "robert_f_kennedy_jr", "candidate_name": "Robert F. Kennedy Jr.", "canonical_document": "prints/gop_nomination_2028__robert_f_kennedy_jr/20260922T030000Z.json", "canonical_question_hash": "sha256:e9b0033db18c705527bea97006c547e0cce17f5206c8100faf0691317533a9d2", "core_offered_venue_count": 2, "detail_path": "details/gop_nomination_2028__robert_f_kennedy_jr.json", "liquidity_window": { "end": "2026-09-22T01:00:00Z", "lag_hours": 1, "start": "2026-08-23T01:00:00Z", "statistic": "median", "target_hours": 720 }, "market_id": "gop_nomination_2028:robert_f_kennedy_jr", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "offered_venue_count": 4, "print": { "dispersion": "0.002", "flags": [ "TWO_VENUE" ], "value": "0.003", "venues_contributing": 2, "weight_contributing": "1.0000" }, "type": "print", "venues": [ { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 566, "depth_history_samples": 31293, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "10095.2942", "median": "0.0045", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.4532" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 492, "depth_history_samples": 29249, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "17240.6584", "median": "0.0025", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.5468" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, { "calculation": { "final_math": { "configured_rule": "weighted_mean", "formula": "sum(median * weight) / sum(weight)", "published_value": "0.037", "raw_value": "0.03675994856288638350996503042", "rule": "weighted_mean", "weight_sum": "0.9999999999999999999999999999", "weighted_sum": "0.03675994856288638350996503042" }, "published_value": "0.037", "rounding": "round half up to 0.001, then clamp to [0.001, 0.999]", "rule": "weighted_mean", "venues_contributing": 5, "weighted_terms": [ { "median": "0.03409090909090909090909090909", "median_x_weight": "0.001693354672729956730859463235", "venue_id": "betfair", "weight": "0.04967173706674539743854425490" }, { "median": "0.0450", "median_x_weight": "0.001831170355436184089826036529", "venue_id": "gemini", "weight": "0.04069267456524853532946747842" }, { "median": "0.0435", "median_x_weight": "0.01522500000000000000000000000", "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3500000000000000000000000000" }, { "median": "0.0275", "median_x_weight": "0.009625000000000000000000000000", "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.3500000000000000000000000000" }, { "median": "0.04", "median_x_weight": "0.008385423534720242689279530664", "venue_id": "predictit", "weight": "0.2096355883680060672319882666" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, "candidate_id": "ron_desantis", "candidate_name": "Ron DeSantis", "canonical_document": "prints/gop_nomination_2028__ron_desantis/20260922T030000Z.json", "canonical_question_hash": "sha256:dca9ca8140d95ab09890064e6f9f9ba16565339e8c5c8c788618f1d2cb5a77d0", "core_offered_venue_count": 3, "detail_path": "details/gop_nomination_2028__ron_desantis.json", "liquidity_window": { "end": "2026-09-22T01:00:00Z", "lag_hours": 1, "start": "2026-08-23T01:00:00Z", "statistic": "median", "target_hours": 720 }, "market_id": "gop_nomination_2028:ron_desantis", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "offered_venue_count": 6, "print": { "dispersion": "0.018", "flags": [], "value": "0.037", "venues_contributing": 5, "weight_contributing": "1.0000" }, "type": "print", "venues": [ { "avg_spread_q": "0.0318", "depth_history_hours": 542, "depth_history_samples": 31159, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "132.9600", "median": "0.03409090909090909090909090909", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "betfair", "weight": "0.0497" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0100", "depth_history_hours": 491, "depth_history_samples": 28863, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "107.6800", "median": "0.0450", "valid_samples": 59, "venue_id": "gemini", "weight": "0.0407" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 566, "depth_history_samples": 31357, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "18608.1201", "median": "0.0435", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 33409, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "12717.3515", "median": "0.0275", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0200", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 32820, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "693.5900", "median": "0.04", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "predictit", "weight": "0.2096" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, { "calculation": { "final_math": { "configured_rule": "weighted_mean", "formula": "sum(median * weight) / sum(weight)", "published_value": "0.004", "raw_value": "0.003514198343023643585135170849", "rule": "weighted_mean", "weight_sum": "1.000000000000000000000000000", "weighted_sum": "0.003514198343023643585135170849" }, "published_value": "0.004", "rounding": "round half up to 0.001, then clamp to [0.001, 0.999]", "rule": "weighted_mean", "venues_contributing": 2, "weighted_terms": [ { "median": "0.0055", "median_x_weight": "0.003072909085917786604054097704", "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.5587107428941430189189268553" }, { "median": "0.001", "median_x_weight": "0.0004412892571058569810810731447", "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.4412892571058569810810731447" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, "candidate_id": "sarah_huckabee_sanders", "candidate_name": "Sarah Huckabee Sanders", "canonical_document": "prints/gop_nomination_2028__sarah_huckabee_sanders/20260922T030000Z.json", "canonical_question_hash": "sha256:72b191d63a7b7185be0bbe7497268e82d54e8bbfe2a7a2d08f2f11b3699e1b36", "core_offered_venue_count": 2, "detail_path": "details/gop_nomination_2028__sarah_huckabee_sanders.json", "liquidity_window": { "end": "2026-09-22T01:00:00Z", "lag_hours": 1, "start": "2026-08-23T01:00:00Z", "statistic": "median", "target_hours": 720 }, "market_id": "gop_nomination_2028:sarah_huckabee_sanders", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "offered_venue_count": 4, "print": { "dispersion": "0.004", "flags": [ "TWO_VENUE" ], "value": "0.004", "venues_contributing": 2, "weight_contributing": "1.0000" }, "type": "print", "venues": [ { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 566, "depth_history_samples": 31265, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "7518.9706", "median": "0.0055", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.5587" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0000", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 33386, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "4430.6553", "median": "0.001", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.4413" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, { "calculation": { "final_math": { "configured_rule": "weighted_mean", "formula": "sum(median * weight) / sum(weight)", "published_value": "0.017", "raw_value": "0.01720613094735909321152228874", "rule": "weighted_mean", "weight_sum": "0.9999999999999999999999999999", "weighted_sum": "0.01720613094735909321152228874" }, "published_value": "0.017", "rounding": "round half up to 0.001, then clamp to [0.001, 0.999]", "rule": "weighted_mean", "venues_contributing": 5, "weighted_terms": [ { "median": "0.01973076923076923076923076923", "median_x_weight": "0.0004426437072781692480563749918", "venue_id": "betfair", "weight": "0.02243418399460506910227241674" }, { "median": "0.0150", "median_x_weight": "0.001261944450904816281339872110", "venue_id": "gemini", "weight": "0.08412963006032108542265814069" }, { "median": "0.0175", "median_x_weight": "0.006125000000000000000000000000", "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3500000000000000000000000000" }, { "median": "0.0185", "median_x_weight": "0.006475000000000000000000000000", "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.3500000000000000000000000000" }, { "median": "0.015", "median_x_weight": "0.002901542789176107682126041638", "venue_id": "predictit", "weight": "0.1934361859450738454750694425" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, "candidate_id": "ted_cruz", "candidate_name": "Ted Cruz", "canonical_document": "prints/gop_nomination_2028__ted_cruz/20260922T030000Z.json", "canonical_question_hash": "sha256:5f25ec836a0d29f6ed0982a4b2ab5846f1cc86bea4a2ca7fdd35676b766eb510", "core_offered_venue_count": 3, "detail_path": "details/gop_nomination_2028__ted_cruz.json", "liquidity_window": { "end": "2026-09-22T01:00:00Z", "lag_hours": 1, "start": "2026-08-23T01:00:00Z", "statistic": "median", "target_hours": 720 }, "market_id": "gop_nomination_2028:ted_cruz", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "offered_venue_count": 6, "print": { "dispersion": "0.005", "flags": [], "value": "0.017", "venues_contributing": 5, "weight_contributing": "1.0000" }, "type": "print", "venues": [ { "avg_spread_q": "0.0375", "depth_history_hours": 533, "depth_history_samples": 30583, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "59.7900", "median": "0.01973076923076923076923076923", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "betfair", "weight": "0.0224" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0100", "depth_history_hours": 491, "depth_history_samples": 28943, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "243.3000", "median": "0.0150", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "gemini", "weight": "0.0841" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 566, "depth_history_samples": 31318, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "23586.5881", "median": "0.0175", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 33414, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "13266.1115", "median": "0.0185", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0100", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 32823, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "649.8900", "median": "0.015", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "predictit", "weight": "0.1934" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, { "calculation": { "final_math": { "configured_rule": "weighted_mean", "formula": "sum(median * weight) / sum(weight)", "published_value": "0.011", "raw_value": "0.0108", "rule": "weighted_mean", "weight_sum": "1.000000000000000000000000000", "weighted_sum": "0.01080000000000000000000000000" }, "published_value": "0.011", "rounding": "round half up to 0.001, then clamp to [0.001, 0.999]", "rule": "weighted_mean", "venues_contributing": 3, "weighted_terms": [ { "median": "0.0150", "median_x_weight": "0.004500000000000000000000000002", "venue_id": "gemini", "weight": "0.3000000000000000000000000001" }, { "median": "0.0115", "median_x_weight": "0.004025", "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.35" }, { "median": "0.0065", "median_x_weight": "0.002275", "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.35" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, "candidate_id": "tom_massie", "candidate_name": "Thomas Massie", "canonical_document": "prints/gop_nomination_2028__tom_massie/20260922T030000Z.json", "canonical_question_hash": "sha256:9f9b39ce7d4b971673c04bf2fb0fa14eeb97c58b5b74cd7112bf4af604814328", "core_offered_venue_count": 3, "detail_path": "details/gop_nomination_2028__tom_massie.json", "liquidity_window": { "end": "2026-09-22T01:00:00Z", "lag_hours": 1, "start": "2026-08-23T01:00:00Z", "statistic": "median", "target_hours": 720 }, "market_id": "gop_nomination_2028:tom_massie", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "offered_venue_count": 5, "print": { "dispersion": "0.008", "flags": [], "value": "0.011", "venues_contributing": 3, "weight_contributing": "0.9231" }, "type": "print", "venues": [ { "avg_spread_q": "0.0100", "depth_history_hours": 491, "depth_history_samples": 28938, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "203.2200", "median": "0.0150", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "gemini", "weight": "0.3000" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 565, "depth_history_samples": 31025, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "10778.7096", "median": "0.0115", "valid_samples": 59, "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 33380, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "4664.3256", "median": "0.0065", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.3500" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, { "calculation": { "final_math": { "configured_rule": "weighted_mean", "formula": "sum(median * weight) / sum(weight)", "published_value": "0.005", "raw_value": "0.0053375", "rule": "weighted_mean", "weight_sum": "1.00", "weighted_sum": "0.0053375" }, "published_value": "0.005", "rounding": "round half up to 0.001, then clamp to [0.001, 0.999]", "rule": "weighted_mean", "venues_contributing": 3, "weighted_terms": [ { "median": "0.013125", "median_x_weight": "0.0039375", "venue_id": "betfair", "weight": "0.3" }, { "median": "0.0025", "median_x_weight": "0.000875", "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.35" }, { "median": "0.0015", "median_x_weight": "0.000525", "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.35" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, "candidate_id": "tom_cotton", "candidate_name": "Tom Cotton", "canonical_document": "prints/gop_nomination_2028__tom_cotton/20260922T030000Z.json", "canonical_question_hash": "sha256:cbe33cda70cd9e23c4f692630f8fad1bb7821ddc7ebab5c9f274926b874684ed", "core_offered_venue_count": 2, "detail_path": "details/gop_nomination_2028__tom_cotton.json", "liquidity_window": { "end": "2026-09-22T01:00:00Z", "lag_hours": 1, "start": "2026-08-23T01:00:00Z", "statistic": "median", "target_hours": 720 }, "market_id": "gop_nomination_2028:tom_cotton", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "offered_venue_count": 4, "print": { "dispersion": "0.012", "flags": [], "value": "0.005", "venues_contributing": 3, "weight_contributing": "1.0000" }, "type": "print", "venues": [ { "avg_spread_q": "0.0238", "depth_history_hours": 533, "depth_history_samples": 30583, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "78.0300", "median": "0.013125", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "betfair", "weight": "0.3000" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 565, "depth_history_samples": 30979, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "8163.4698", "median": "0.0025", "valid_samples": 59, "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 33396, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "1456.2585", "median": "0.0015", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.3500" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, { "calculation": { "final_math": { "configured_rule": "weighted_mean", "formula": "sum(median * weight) / sum(weight)", "published_value": "0.032", "raw_value": "0.03234141896213036371910423336", "rule": "weighted_mean", "weight_sum": "1.000000000000000000000000000", "weighted_sum": "0.03234141896213036371910423336" }, "published_value": "0.032", "rounding": "round half up to 0.001, then clamp to [0.001, 0.999]", "rule": "weighted_mean", "venues_contributing": 4, "weighted_terms": [ { "median": "0.04805491990846681922196796340", "median_x_weight": "0.003539145567469515046419001432", "venue_id": "betfair", "weight": "0.07364793395162752739452874407" }, { "median": "0.02909126", "median_x_weight": "0.0101819410", "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.35" }, { "median": "0.03367", "median_x_weight": "0.0117845", "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.35" }, { "median": "0.0302", "median_x_weight": "0.006835832394660848672685231928", "venue_id": "predictit", "weight": "0.2263520660483724726054712559" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, "candidate_id": "tucker_carlson", "candidate_name": "Tucker Carlson", "canonical_document": "prints/gop_nomination_2028__tucker_carlson/20260922T030000Z.json", "canonical_question_hash": "sha256:6e4cb3cc51111c3755962cef429c5b4eb8120775963394764017cbb2b691712d", "core_offered_venue_count": 2, "detail_path": "details/gop_nomination_2028__tucker_carlson.json", "liquidity_window": { "end": "2026-09-22T01:00:00Z", "lag_hours": 1, "start": "2026-08-23T01:00:00Z", "statistic": "median", "target_hours": 720 }, "market_id": "gop_nomination_2028:tucker_carlson", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "offered_venue_count": 5, "print": { "dispersion": "0.019", "flags": [], "value": "0.032", "venues_contributing": 4, "weight_contributing": "1.0000" }, "type": "print", "venues": [ { "avg_spread_q": "0.0092", "depth_history_hours": 542, "depth_history_samples": 31159, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "276.4000", "median": "0.04805491990846681922196796340", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "betfair", "weight": "0.0736" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0038", "depth_history_hours": 566, "depth_history_samples": 31361, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "12197.1923", "median": "0.02909126", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0047", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 33386, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "21436.6247", "median": "0.03367", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0196", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 32821, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "1117.1100", "median": "0.0302", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "predictit", "weight": "0.2264" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, { "calculation": { "final_math": { "configured_rule": "weighted_mean", "formula": "sum(median * weight) / sum(weight)", "published_value": "0.003", "raw_value": "0.002543668000000000000000000000", "rule": "weighted_mean", "weight_sum": "0.9999999999999999999999999999", "weighted_sum": "0.002543668000000000000000000000" }, "published_value": "0.003", "rounding": "round half up to 0.001, then clamp to [0.001, 0.999]", "rule": "weighted_mean", "venues_contributing": 3, "weighted_terms": [ { "median": "0.0025", "median_x_weight": "0.0008750000000000000000000000000", "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3500000000000000000000000000" }, { "median": "0.00391048", "median_x_weight": "0.001368668000000000000000000000", "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.3500000000000000000000000000" }, { "median": "0.001", "median_x_weight": "0.0002999999999999999999999999999", "venue_id": "predictit", "weight": "0.2999999999999999999999999999" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, "candidate_id": "tulsi_gabbard", "candidate_name": "Tulsi Gabbard", "canonical_document": "prints/gop_nomination_2028__tulsi_gabbard/20260922T030000Z.json", "canonical_question_hash": "sha256:729b31c2af8bc4b71f05b7c9c4ced6283da2ec792962a24e2e1d6f11c07a1184", "core_offered_venue_count": 2, "detail_path": "details/gop_nomination_2028__tulsi_gabbard.json", "liquidity_window": { "end": "2026-09-22T01:00:00Z", "lag_hours": 1, "start": "2026-08-23T01:00:00Z", "statistic": "median", "target_hours": 720 }, "market_id": "gop_nomination_2028:tulsi_gabbard", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "offered_venue_count": 5, "print": { "dispersion": "0.003", "flags": [], "value": "0.003", "venues_contributing": 3, "weight_contributing": "0.9919" }, "type": "print", "venues": [ { "avg_spread_q": "0.0010", "depth_history_hours": 566, "depth_history_samples": 31309, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "9448.3597", "median": "0.0025", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0018", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 33414, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "22354.3744", "median": "0.00391048", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.3500" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0000", "depth_history_hours": 413, "depth_history_samples": 22848, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "315.8400", "median": "0.001", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "predictit", "weight": "0.3000" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, { "calculation": { "final_math": { "configured_rule": "weighted_mean", "formula": "sum(median * weight) / sum(weight)", "published_value": "0.004", "raw_value": "0.003949026958321000711143117092", "rule": "weighted_mean", "weight_sum": "1.000000000000000000000000000", "weighted_sum": "0.003949026958321000711143117092" }, "published_value": "0.004", "rounding": "round half up to 0.001, then clamp to [0.001, 0.999]", "rule": "weighted_mean", "venues_contributing": 2, "weighted_terms": [ { "median": "0.00529564", "median_x_weight": "0.003118593246091739641948069861", "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.5888982721808392643661710125" }, { "median": "0.00202002", "median_x_weight": "0.0008304337122292610691950472313", "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.4111017278191607356338289875" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, "candidate_id": "vivek_ramaswamy", "candidate_name": "Vivek Ramaswamy", "canonical_document": "prints/gop_nomination_2028__vivek_ramaswamy/20260922T030000Z.json", "canonical_question_hash": "sha256:85601a44e150ef8a191508dddc0f6cd540dbc94530dadd8b322675daafa02329", "core_offered_venue_count": 2, "detail_path": "details/gop_nomination_2028__vivek_ramaswamy.json", "liquidity_window": { "end": "2026-09-22T01:00:00Z", "lag_hours": 1, "start": "2026-08-23T01:00:00Z", "statistic": "median", "target_hours": 720 }, "market_id": "gop_nomination_2028:vivek_ramaswamy", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "offered_venue_count": 4, "print": { "dispersion": "0.003", "flags": [ "TWO_VENUE" ], "value": "0.004", "venues_contributing": 2, "weight_contributing": "1.0000" }, "type": "print", "venues": [ { "avg_spread_q": "0.0026", "depth_history_hours": 566, "depth_history_samples": 31303, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "9819.1489", "median": "0.00529564", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "0.5889" }, { "avg_spread_q": "0.0020", "depth_history_hours": 569, "depth_history_samples": 33371, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "4271.7630", "median": "0.00202002", "valid_samples": 60, "venue_id": "polymarket", "weight": "0.4111" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, { "calculation": { "final_math": { "configured_rule": "weighted_mean", "formula": "fewer than two prediction markets with positive final weight", "published_value": null, "raw_value": null, "rule": "no_print" }, "published_value": null, "rounding": "round half up to 0.001, then clamp to [0.001, 0.999]", "rule": "no_print", "venues_contributing": 1, "weighted_terms": [ { "median": "0.001", "median_x_weight": "0.001", "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "1" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" }, "candidate_id": "lara_trump", "candidate_name": "Lara Trump", "canonical_document": "prints/gop_nomination_2028__lara_trump/20260922T030000Z.json", "canonical_question_hash": "sha256:058d67b9273cf0dae13ef44f932be30a3eae33f249b88ac870dd9479a33798dd", "core_offered_venue_count": 1, "detail_path": "details/gop_nomination_2028__lara_trump.json", "liquidity_window": { "end": "2026-09-22T01:00:00Z", "lag_hours": 1, "start": "2026-08-23T01:00:00Z", "statistic": "median", "target_hours": 720 }, "market_id": "gop_nomination_2028:lara_trump", "market_set_id": "gop_nomination_2028", "offered_venue_count": 2, "print": { "dispersion": null, "flags": [ "NO_PRINT" ], "value": null, "venues_contributing": 1, "weight_contributing": "1.0000" }, "type": "print", "venues": [ { "avg_spread_q": "0.0000", "depth_history_hours": 474, "depth_history_samples": 27281, "depth_source": "lagged_30d_median", "depth_usd_30d": "16013.6814", "median": "0.001", "valid_samples": 59, "venue_id": "kalshi", "weight": "1.0000" } ], "window_end": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "window_start": "2026-09-22T02:00:00Z" } ], "title": "2028 Republican Presidential Nomination", "type": "latest_index", "visible_candidate_count": 29 }